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A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the reason for Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.

As per the data, in only two games has the side had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has strung together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet find their top level.

• The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.