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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."